n the 1970’s the first so-called energy crisis erupted, triggered by an embargo on Middle Eastern oil.
The shock waves spread across the world. I remember standing in line for hours at the gas station, just to buy a miserable gallon of rationed and diluted gasoline for the most astronomical price in history.
Still, right in the middle of the embargo, oil was only $13 dollars a barrel – less than one third of today’s price and one sixth of last year’s price.
The Anxiety over Oil
But that was just the beginning. For the next four decades, the world has been immersed in one sort of energy crisis or another. Oil has been the center of all kinds of economic shocks and political conflicts. The prospect of earth running out of oil has long been the most scary obsession of government leaders, scientists and economists alike.
Yet at the turn of the century, a lone voice from the Sahara made a bold but reassuring forecast – one that nonetheless not many governments or the general public paid much attention to, having discarded it as little more than a desert mirage.
“The stone age ended, but not for lack of stones.
The age of petroleum will end but not for lack of oil.”
Those were the words of visionary Saudi Arabian Sheik Ahmed Yamani, who in the year 2000 predicted the end of the oil age by 2030.
Such was the topic of an exciting and powerfully inspirational conference by Venezuelan renewable energy expert, futurist, economist, engineer and columnist José Luis Cordeiro, delivered recently at the American Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Santo Domingo.
Mr. Cordeiro is a renowned speaker and founding faculty of Singularity University located at Silicon Valley, CA, a think tank funded by Google, Microsoft and other hi-tech giants. He has spoken on the topic throughout the world. A video of one of his conferences is available for you to watch at the end of this article.
The Confusion over Peak Oil
In our collective minds, the earth was supposed to be on life support and nearing its destruction in an oil-driven Armageddon.
Looming over our fate, presumably, was the often misunderstood concept of peak oil. Based on M. King Hubbert’s theory, peak oil according to Wikipedia “is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline.”
But most people confuse it with oil depletion which is the simultaneous combination of falling reserves and production.
Notwithstanding this, every time an ominous forecast was made that the globe had X number of years before it ran out of oil, some major deposit was found, like the one off the coast of Brazil some years ago. And the planet would get a new lease on life.
More recently, it wasn’t a newly discovered deposit but a technological breakthrough in the USA which boosted production to such high levels as to turn that nation into a soon-to-be net oil exporter.
This and other factors, primarily the increasing shift to clean fuels have led to a sharp drop in world prices, down from over $100 per barrel in June 2014 to under $50 a barrel today.
So no one is really concerned any more about the world running out of oil. The anxiety — for the human mind always seems to need something to worry about — is now shifting toward food and water. But that is another story, outside the scope of this article.
While it is a relief to know that we may never run out of oil, it is not necessarily good news for the planet.
More and more oil combined with human greed and insanity translates into greater damage to the environment, and this must be stopped or at least, mitigated.
For better or for worse, this is only possible in a world that runs on clean fuels.
End of an Age in Sight
Fortunately, according to Mr. Cordeiro, there are clear indications that the age of oil may finally be coming to an end – proving that the sheik’s vision was right after all.
Cordeiro based his opinion on the increasing speed at which technological innovations are making renewable energies more economically viable.
To illustrate his points, he cited many examples, including:
- Tesla’s electric cars and Google’s self-driving cars;
- The energy giant British Petroleum (BP) having changed its name to Beyond Petroleum since it is no longer British or limited to oil production;
- The fact that Germany has gone from 0% to 30% renewable in 10 years and plans to be 100% renewable in 15 more years.
- The islands of Bonaire (in the Caribbean) and Tuvalu (in the South Pacific) which run 100% on renewable energy.
- Hawaii’s plans to reduce average energy cost from 40c to 8c per kilowatt-hour through adoption of clean fuels.
- Masdar City (in the UAE) which is the wold’s first zero-carbon footprint prototype settlement.
Mr. Cordeiro stated that today’s clean energy options are “basically solar, wind, geothermal and natural gas”. But even even natural gas is at the end of its life cycle, he added, and in 5 years’ time there won’t be any new investments in gas-driven plants.
According to the expert, the energy of the future is solar. The technology behind it is changing exponentially like that of cellphones. Every few years technological improvements make products doubly powerful and half as costly.
“In as little as two more years solar panels will be so inexpensive as to surpass all types of fossil fuels in cost efficiency.” And there will come a time — which he estimates in 30 years — when energy will be free for everyone.
Yes, you read correctly….FREE for every man, woman and child on the planet !
Referring to our country, he stated that it has so much sunshine that “it could easily turn into the Saudi Arabia of the Caribbean in solar energy production.”
Time to be Thankful
In my opinion, Mr. Cordeiro may be overly optimistic about the timing of the end of the oil age — just as the sheik was 15 years ago — but the fact is, we are truly seeing evidence that it is for real.
And, likewise, about free energy being available to the whole world — I believe this may be possible only in countries that practice environmental conservation and sustainable development.
In his 1980’s best seller The Third Wave, author Alvin Toffler dubbed as “waves” the three major turning points in human history: the agrarian, the industrial and post-industrial revolutions.
We are now witnessing the beginning of a fourth wave — the end of fossil fuels and the advent of renewable energy.
Thus, it is high time for our rational minds to stop looking for skeletons in the closet and be grateful, for we live in the most exciting time in human history !
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Click to view this video conference by Jose Luis Cordeiro
The Future of Technology and the Technology of the Future – Talks at Google
For additional reading on sustainable development, I recommend this website:
www.GreenPlanetArchitects.com